Chase Discussion for April 23, 2007.
Chase Condition: Level 3
Probability of Going: 30%
Departure Time: 14:00 CDT
00z NAM continues the array of model surprises. The setup for Monday appears very conditional right now. There are two primary issues 1) extensive cloud cover and 2) weakness at 500mb flow. Part 1 is noted by almost 100% RH from 550mb up to 400mb. This will greatly limit daytime heating and resultant instability across the threat area. Said clouds were noted on IR and visible imagery earlier tonight. The true affects of this activity will be monitored during the day tomorrow.
The issue with the 500mb winds could be a model thing or it has locked onto something. I'll have to go over the 00z GFS in the morning, but this weakness would cause issues with updrafts and splitting supercells. Much to look at regarding a chase on Monday, especially with Tuesday on my mind. At this point I'm not so inclined to go.
00z NAM slowed the dryline down for Tuesday, but it is still over driving it. It brings the dryline to I-35 around 00z, I seriously doubt that will happen. There will be impressive jet dynamics, but gonna be tough to remove 150 mb of 10C + moisture out of the region. Now, the NAM veers 850mb flow and this is a model bias, at least I've seen it before. So, I'm gonna stay middle of the road right now on Tuesday.
I think SPC will continue the moderate risk pending cloud cover, it may get dropped at 16:30z. I'm quite confident they'll continue the moderate for Tuesday and may even go to a high or hint at a high risk.
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