Severe Weather Discussion for April 9 – 15, 2007.
– Below normal temperatures today and Tuesday; above normal temperatures through Sunday.
– Chance of showers through Tuesday evening.
– Chance of thunderstorms Thursday and Friday, some possibly severe.
– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 40%
– Storm Chase: 20%
– Winter Precip: < 5%
Holy cow, last week was an event. Much below normal temperatures dominated the region as a large longwave trof hung out over the eastern U.S. Said trof has moved east this evening as the surface ridge goes with it. Texas saw some decent snowfall over the weekend and even a few flakes occurred in Oklahoma. This week promises to be a little warmer.
Atmosphere will remain amplified this week with another longwave trof moving into the western U.S. Before this system moves in a weak northern stream shortwave trof will traverse the northern U.S. on Tuesday/Wednesday. This will push a cold front into the region but said boundary isn't expected to make it too far into Texas.
By Thursday a much larger system will approach the region resulting in a surface low across CO/KS. The Gulf got partially worked over with the Canadian intrusion last week, but not nearly what could have happened. A warm front should develop in Texas on Thursday as deep layer moisture moves northward. This will increase the chance for thunderstorms across Oklahoma. Some may be severe with large hail, but currently expect activity to be on the low-end side of the scale.
Deep layer moisture return continues during the night into Friday with low/mid 60s across the region by Friday morning. Models are very quick with the upper system and push the moisture east by noon. This would put the most significant threat across eastern parts of OK/TX. There is the potential for a significant severe weather event across parts of the region, especially eastern Texas. However, if the system slows, this would increase the threat for Oklahoma. Given what happened on March 28th, I'm not betting the farm on the current system speed. The probabilities are set to climo to account for the uncertainty. Discussions will likely be needed starting tomorrow to account for the potential in Texas on Friday.
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