Severe Weather Discussion for April 2 – 8, 2007.
– Above normal temperatures Monday and Tuesday; near or below normal through the weekend.
– Chance of thunderstorms southeastern 1/3rd of Oklahoma on Tuesday and a slight chance on Thursday.
– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 20%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: < 5%
Our previous upper system is moving rapidly northeast today and is located over the Great Lakes. It will continue northeast out of the U.S. by tomorrow. The jet streams will be much farther north the early part of this week. Late Monday a southern stream shortwave trof moves into the central U.S. and on east. This will bring a Pacific cold front through the region on Tuesday. By late in the week a large longwave trof develops over the eastern U.S. with northerly flow in the central U.S. This will bring a much stronger cold front through the region around Thursday. The eastern U.S. longwave trof will dominate the weather pattern through 04/08.
With subtle flow aloft and little cool air behind our prior system, temperatures will dramatically warm up Monday and Tuesday. Both days should be above normal (currently 67F in OKC). A cold front should move through the region on Tuesday. How fast this feature moves south will govern thunderstorm development Tuesday afternoon. Current thinking is the southeast 1/3rd of Oklahoma stands the best chance for convection. Given CAPE values above 3000 J/Kg and LIs below -6, severe thunderstorms are possible. Wind fields will be weak but the front should provide a convergence mechanism. A reinforcing shot of cold air will move into the region on Thursday as a Canadian cold front pushes south. This will cool the region off for the remainder of the week and end storm chances. There may be a window for thunderstorms on Thursday as the front moves through, but little organized activity is expected.
It appears that the first 11 days of April will be quiet around here, other than this Tuesday. There are some hints that around the 12th-16th we will see a return to an active pattern across the Plains.
For more information, weather news, weather blog, and chase summaries go to http://www.hook-echo.com.