Severe Weather Discussion for March 28 – 29, 2007.
– Active severe weather day will occur with potential for significant severe weather from west Texas northward into Nebraska. Primary threats throughout the western parts of the region are tornadoes, hail to 3 inches, and damaging winds.
– Severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday.
– Chase Condition is raised to Level 4, leaving at 13:00. The webcam and tracking devices will be online, provided we're near Internet. I hope to blog from the road, but we'll see.
No change to prior forecast. Upper system evolving as expected and for the record the ECMWF hit this one pretty well. The dryline is much farther west than most models indicated, although the ECMWF had it a few day ago. Part of this is extensive cloud cover, which continues across parts of the threat area. Recent satellite imagery does show the clouds breaking and would expect better clearing within the next two hours. Temperatures have responded in areas where the clouds have cleared. CAPE values are around 2200 J/Kg along the Red River with LIs to -5. The dryline is expected to start moving east and be in the central Texas panhandle at convective initiation. Storms should then move northeast into Oklahoma.
Initially and through late afternoon storms should be isolated with more widespread activity tonight. There is a damaging wind threat for central Oklahoma as storms merge into a large complex.
The forecast for Thursday is rather muddied given model progs of widespread precip Thursday morning. I kept the threat in, but think it can be removed tomorrow.
Risk area for any part of OK/TX (valid: 03/29 Day 1, Day 2):
Slight: 100%, 50%
Moderate: 40%, 0%
High: 0%, N/A
Level 4 – Heading to Hollis around 13:00.
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