Chase Discussion for March 28, 2007.
Target Location: Hollis
Departure Time: 13:00
00z NAM increases the potential significance for Wednesday. It is now progging CAPE values AOA 3000 J/Kg along the dryline and LIs AOB -7. The NAM has backed the dryline up a little bit with it solidly in the Texas panhandle by 7pm. However, that shouldn't matter much as storm are likely to initiate by 4pm. NAM-WRF soundings places EHI values near 3.5 to 4.0 and the Thompson index around 40. The soundings are alike from Childress to Elk City. Farther north the thermodynamic parameters are decent but directional shear isn't as good. This may be compensated for, but for now I think that area is too far north.
The sweet spot for this event appears to be in the southwest quarter of Oklahoma. If surface winds back more than progged, it may increase the significance of the event. I'm struggling between Hollis and Sayre, but will likely go with the former. Time to Hollis isn't too bad and believe that we can fall in behind any storms that have already developed.
I think this warrant a moderate risk with at least a 15% on the tornado graphic in western OK. We'll see what SPC does, but I've gone on record with my opinion.
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