Severe Weather Discussion for March 22 – 24, 2007.
– Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across west Texas into western Oklahoma today through Saturday. Primary threat is large hail.
No change to prior forecasts other than this has been a rough forecasting week. We've gone for widespread severe thunderstorms to heavy rain to nothing and back. The current model progs indicate the upper system will eject northeast into New Mexico on Saturday and through Nebraska on Sunday. There will be little to no push on the dryline and the cap (EML) has kept storms down across the region. And, the expected synoptic front will not get very far into Oklahoma. These two focusing mechanisms will remain outside of Oklahoma for the most part.
Storms should initiate out west and north of Oklahoma today along the dryline and cold front. Activity may make some eastward progress tonight as the low level jet develops. More of the same is expected on Friday as the upper system remains stalled in Mexico. Saturday may see more robust activity across the region as the upper system lifts northeast. However, the expected severe weather threat remains on the low-end of the scale. Widespread convection may develop across Oklahoma on Saturday as lift moves across the region. After that we should be quiet for a few days.
At this time I do not expect more than a slight risk for the region through Sunday and I'm suspending discussions for a few days.
Discussions will likely pick back up on Saturday for next Tuesday/Wednesday. 12z GFS and 00z ECMWF remain consistent in developing a western U.S. longwave trof and keeping it progressive. These progs would result in favorable conditions for severe weather on Wednesday. SPC has this highlighted in their Day 4-8 product, referencing Days 6/7 (Tue/Wed). I'm not sure what they're seeing in Tuesday, but time will tell. Current progs would yield a medium-end event., however we're still a long ways out.
Level 1 – Normal
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