Severe Weather Discussion for March 19 – 25, 2007.
– Lots of rain this week with some severe weather potential thrown in for good measure. Temperatures will vary day to day, but should average at or above normal.
– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 40%
– Storm Chase: 20%
– Winter Precip: < 5%
Normal high is 63F at this point and we should be near or above that all week. Cloud cover and rainfall will make the actual temperatures vary quite a bit. Severe thunderstorms are possible all week, but the most intense stuff looks to be Wednesday and Saturday. I disagree with OUN on Thu/Fri. I do think we'll see some isolated severe on these days, but don't think it will be anything other than marginal. The 40% covers what's expected all week and highlights Wed/Sat. Heavy rainfall is a big concern although the GFS has turned dry. I'm not biting into this solution as there is lots of moisture over the region. OUN's sounding had CAPE values of 760 J/Kg and LIs -3.6 this morning. This should only improve, until widespread rainfall hits.
More details this afternoon with the special discussions.
For more information, weather news, weather blog, and chase summaries go to http://www.hook-echo.com.