Weekly Severe Weather Discussion

Severe Weather Discussion for March 12 – 18, 2007.
Valid: 03/12/2007.

Highlights:

– Above normal temperatures through Wednesday, near normal temperatures the remainder of the week.

– Chance of showers through Wednesday.

Probabilities:

– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 10%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: < 5%

Discussion:

Storm season starts on Thursday, but won't know it here.

Mid-level pattern will be subtle the first part of this week as a closed and cutoff southern stream low meanders over west Texas. This features has provided much needed rainfall for the region. Oklahoma received 0.5 to 1.5 inches the past few days with parts of central Texas receiving 3-5 inches last night. Said feature will remain near the region through Tuesday as flow remains weak in this area. By Wednesday a northern stream shortwave trof will move into the northern U.S. and kick out the weakening southern stream system. Said northern stream system is progged to develop into an eastern U.S. longwave trof, which will drive a Canadian cold front into the region. This will bring temperatures back to normal on Thursday, where they should be through Sunday. Current normal temperature in OKC is 61F.

Potential for showers and thunderstorms will continue through late Tuesday as the upper system is near the area. However, the best chance for organized severe activity is in Texas and this goes along with SPC Day 2. I've gone 10% in case one or two storms manage to put down some hail. Overall the threat for Oklahoma has decreased. Only light shower activity is expected the next few days.

Overall this week is shaping up to be a beautiful late winter week and yes, spring does start next week.

Ensemble plots continue to depict a blocking pattern around 180 degrees. This looks to decrease by the end of this week. There is considerable spread in the models beyond Saturday, but certainly looks like there is potential for a west coast trof around the 22-25th of March. Additionally, the Canadian cold front will not put too big of a dent into the Gulf with 65-70F dewpoints remaining in the southern parts of the Gulf. As a result of this, by Day 8 the GFS returns 65F dewpoints into Oklahoma ahead of a shortwave trof. Now, there is little consistency at this point, but it is something to watch.


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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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