Severe Weather Discussion for March 5 – 11, 2007.
– Above normal temperatures all week.
– Slight chance of thunderstorms on Saturday.
– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 5%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: < 5%
Rather non-amplified weather pattern will dominate the region Wednesday through Sunday. Today and Tuesday will see the eastern U.S. longwave trof slowing moving off the east coast. This influence from this feature should decrease by Wednesday for the eastern U.S.
Around these parts the mid-level pattern will be almost zonal with only subtle influences expected. Due to time of year these subtle influences will have a limited affect on sensible weather. The Gulf got whacked significantly this weekend and recovery shouldn't start until tomorrow. As such, very dry conditions are in-place across the region and the wild fire threat is quite high. By late in the week, some modified moisture should move into Oklahoma. The 00z GFS intensifies a southern stream shortwave trof over Oklahoma on Saturday and moves this feature along the coast. The 06z version was much farther north and weaker over Oklahoma. As such, rain chances for Saturday are in doubt. I'll go ahead with a slight chance for mainly eastern Oklahoma. Moisture return isn't expected to be much better than upper 50s dewponits, which is in-line with climatology. 00z ECMWF is a blend of the two GFS runs and I'll stick with my current slight chance.
Atmospheric pattern has gone rather flat for this time of year and certainly looks like a dry period; for some of us a continuation of dry conditions. The blocking map shows a redeveloped blocking pattern around 180 degrees. Indeed, the ensemble plots show the same feature with an Omega Block. This would explain the low amplitude ridge over the lower 48. While the models disagree a little as to what will happen, they all keep the ridge in place through March 10th. So, it is safe to say things are going to be quiet around here for a while Now, the data was from last Friday, but it matches well with the current progs and certainly does not change my forecast. The nice thing about this is the Gulf will have time to recover. It certainly looks like mid-late March will turn active. This pattern we're in usually lasts for about two weeks.
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