Severe Weather Discussion for February 26 – March 4, 2007.
– Slight chance of thunderstorms in eastern Oklahoma on Wednesday.
– Above normal temperatures through Wednesday, with near normal temperatures through the weekend.
– Time change on March 11th, turn forward one hour, that is two weeks away.
– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 15%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: < 5% Discussion: Longwave trof will move into the region late Wednesday and slow down as it the northern portion closes off. Moisture is limited to mainly surface and this will reduce the severe weather threat. For now, it appears that southeast Oklahoma will be the best spot as 850mb moisture may return to this area before the upper system hits the region. Elsewhere, continued dry conditions will be the rule. Mid-level pattern exhibits an eastern U.S. longwave trof through the end of the week with weak ridging to the west. The system on Wednesday is progged by the 00z GFS/ECMWF to strengthen as it moves east and this will drag a surface high into the Gulf. As such, 50+ dewpoints again get pushed to the Yucatan and Cuba around Saturday. Gulf recovery starts after the strong cool push, luckily the high is of Pacific origin. Little in the way of activity around here after Wednesday and this appears to be the rule through Sunday. At this point there isn’t anything in the medium range models to hang my hat on for next week. If we can take a few days off, it will allow the Gulf to recover. The severe weather threat on Wednesday appears to be isolated and I do not expect more than a slight risk. So, I’m going to drop discussions at this point. If the significance increases, discussions will be resumed.