Severe Weather Discussion for February 12 – 18, 2007.
– Severe thunderstorms are likely in the eastern half of Texas on east today. Thunderstorms are possible in the southeast 1/3rd of Oklahoma today.
– Snow is likely tonight in Oklahoma, but not expecting much more than 1-2 inches.
– Snow is possible late Wednesday into Thursday, a trace is about it.
– Temperatures will be much below normal after today through Thursday. A warm-up is expected for Friday – Sunday.
– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 10%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: 15%
Days until storm season: 31.
Atmosphere will remain in the big ridge west and big trof east U.S. the next few days. This pattern will start to break down later this week, as agreed upon by all the models. However, at least one more cold surge is expected the next few days. This will keep the region below normal (after today) through Friday. A warming trend should bring us to near normal, 53F in OKC, by Saturday. Ohh and it can get much colder here as the record low today is -13F from 1899. Global Warming does have it benefits.
Low amplitude southern stream shortwave trof is progged to traverse the region later today. Moisture is flowing north per surface low/850mb transport this morning. SPC has a slight risk up for the eastern half of Texas on east. This looks good, a decent tornado threat per SPC is situated in southeast Texas into LA. As this system passes a northern stream shortwave trof will drive a Canadian airmass into the region tonight. This airmass will will be pretty cold and might even have some Arctic air with it, given cross-polar flow in the northwest. Snow is possible later today as the cold air filters in and the upper system moves across the region. Only 1-2 inches are expected with no advisories anticipated ATTM.
The cold front will suppress moisture well into the Gulf as the next southern stream system approaches on Wednesday. Additionally, 12 GFS progs a northern stream trof to amplify just to our east. This will produce confluent flow in the region and the southern stream stream system should get sheared. Therefore, lack of moisture and a weakening system should result in little precipitation across the region. Cannot rule out a trace of snow due to the cold column.
00z enesmble plots move the persistent eastern U.S. longwave trof east late Friday and through the weekend. This should cease the Canadian cold fronts and allow for more Pacific type events. As such, the cold front expected this weekend might actually warm the region up as the Canadian air is replaced. Recent GFS runs indicate the Gulf is going to get whacked this week as the strong 1040mb Canadian high moves into the region. Said model pushes Gulf moisture way southeast with 55F at the Yucatan. That is normal for this time of year, but remains to be seen. If it does happen, then activity may be limited through the 22nd of February as the Gulf recovers.
Interesting news came down last week as the El Nino discussion was released. Per the NWS, El Nino neutral conditions are expected by March – May. The impacts on the global weather pattern and storm season will be interesting. Like last year, the Gulf hasn't seen a lot of Arctic air intrusions. Although this week is different per prior reasoning on the Gulf.
SPC just issued a severe thunderstorms watch for McCurtain County in southeast Oklahoma, our first watch of 2007. The watch also covers much of eastern Texas into LA.
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