Severe Weather Discussion for January 29 – February 4, 2007.
– Near normal temperatures today, below normal through Thursday. Much below normal Friday – Sunday.
– Chance of snow Wednesday into Thursday.
– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: < 5%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: 25%
Synoptic pattern will amplify this week as the Hudson Bay low grows in size the next few days. This is in coordination with a large ridge just off the California coast. The models agree on the general details of this event and that several Arctic cold fronts will move through the region. The finer details remain in question, but are not significant enough regarding sensible weather to warrant too much concern.
Today will be the best day for the next 7-10 days, as temperatures will be near normal, 49F in OKC. A cold front will move through the region later today with temperatures in the upper 30s/low 40s on Tuesday and Wednesday. Thursday, the first Arctic front moves into the region and this front may move in faster than progged. Temperatures will be in the upper 20s/low 30s during the day with nighttime lows in the teens. Models may not have a good handle on how cold the Arctic air is and as such current forecast temperatures may be a little warm. 00z GFS/ECMWF do not show a good surface connection to the Arctic in this part of the world, with most of the really cold air going east. However, this stuff is really cold and even a taste of it is bad news.
GFS shows the mid-level pattern to flatten out some by the 5-6th of February, which should end the Arctic surges. However, tough to say if this will occur as the models may be moving the Arctic air too quickly east. For now, it looks like 7-10 days of below normal temperatures. I'm not really sure if I care what the over-sized rat is going to see on Friday. It is gonna be really cold here and that's what matters.
There is a slight chance of snow on Wednesday into Thursday. Nothing significant is expected, the 25% is for areal coverage of 1-2 inches, if that even occurs.
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