Weekly Severe Weather Discussion

Severe Weather Discussion for January 22 – 28, 2007.
Valid: 01/22/2007.

Highlights:

– Temperatures near normal Tuesday – Saturday, below normal Sunday.

Probabilities:

– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: < 5%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: 10%

Discussion:

Looks like a quiet week on tap. Boy, I got my butt handed to me last weekend. Although, I am proud of my weekly discussion from last week, the 20% was a little low but not by much. Only NW OK got hit by winter precip, however the amounts were in the significant range.

This week looks to be much calmer as the Hudson Bay low will dominate the central/eastern U.S. weather. In this neck of the woods the mid-level flow will have a northerly component through Thursday. This is typically a dry flow for this region. However, the oddball is sitting in old Mexico. 12z models continue prior trends of lifting this system out into the region late Friday into Saturday. This looks to be mainly a rain producer for Texas as a function of isentropic upglide. GFS has some 90% RH values at 500mb with this system as it moves across Oklahoma. The 700mb RH fields do not seem to match up, so much of the precip would go to evaporation in Oklahoma. I'm going with 10% on the winter weather precip at this point. Any big issues will be covered by special discussions, however I do not anticipate such at this point. I continue my prior tirade that we rarely get hit more than once in a week, we'll see if that extends to a month.

Normal high in OKC is 47F and we're heading into mid-winter as of this week. Still looks to be on the cool side and the GFS has hinted at some Canadian air later in the week. At this point I do not see Arctic air as there is no loading in Canada right now. Much of the really cold air is in eastern Canada with the Hudson Bay low.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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