Winter Weather Discussion – 2007-2-1

Winter Weather Discussion for January 19 – 21, 2007.
Valid: 01/19/2007.

Highlights:

– Winter Storm Warning western/central Oklahoma and Texas panhandle into northeast Oklahoma and northwest part of north Texas.

– Heavy Snow Warning west Texas.

– Winter Weather Advisory north Texas into east-central Oklahoma.

Discussion

No time or a discussion as Oklahoma's response to the ice storm continues. 12z GFS/NAM agree on the details of this event with confidence much better than 24 hours ago. NAM has cooled alot from prior runs and this is very close to the profile depicted by the GFS. Additionally, the NAM has increased QPF and once again looks more like the GFS.

Current models agree that 8-10 inches of snow is likely in the state. NWS OUN paints an area in north-central Oklahoma into northeast sections for max snowfall. This is close to the upper system track and is in the favored heavy snow area of the compact closed low per the GFS. In the Texas panhandle and west Texas there will also be heavy snow, with 12 inch accumulations possible. Across northwest Oklahoma 4-6 inches area possible. As you get into the I-44 area and move southeast the forecast becomes more complicated. Models agree that warm air will make it into the region around 800mb. This would bring sleet to the area as the sub-freezing layer is very thick. I do not see a major freezing rain threat in this event. So, for the I-44 area 5-7 inches of snow with some sleet. South of this region the snow/sleet accumulations will be about equal at 1-2 inches. Then in southeast Oklahoma the precip will be mainly liquid with some sleet. There may be some freezing driz
zle in
the southeast as the surface low moves east and shallow sub-freezing air moves in. This threat is limited and should not cause any major problems.

Travel will be very hazardous across the region this weekend, especially Saturday afternoon through Sunday.

For more information, weather news, weather blog, and chase summaries go to http://www.hook-echo.com.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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