Winter Weather Discussion

Severe Weather Discussion for January 15 – 21, 2007.
Valid: 01/15/2007.

Highlights:

– Below normal temperatures all week.

– Slight chance of rain or snow this weekend.

Probabilities:

– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: < 5%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: 20%

Discussion:

The Global Warming glacier greatly expanded this weekend and now covers much of Oklahoma, Texas panhandle into Nebraska. It will take a while for this thing to thaw and as such temperatures will be below normal this week. This trend is also aided by the northerly flow at 500mb with periodic chunks of Canadian air moving into the region. Luckily there are no signs of Arctic air this week. The GFS does hint at such in 10 days, but I'll leave that alone for now. Normal high in OKC is 47F.

Precip chances this week are real tough. I do not see much for Oklahoma through Friday. However, for the weekend the GFS and ECMWF do hint at some activity. The air appears to be a little warmer this time around and so think winter precip is a tough bet. It could happen during the nocturnal time period. For now will keep the percentage at 20% to cover any issues. I'm not going to issue special discussions unless it appears a significant event is going to happen. One of my forecasting rules is we rarely get two big events in a week. Additionally, moisture looks rather limited for this next system as 50F dewpoints are off the coast.


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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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