Winter Weather Discussion 2007-1-8

Winter Weather Discussion for January 13 – 17, 2007.
Valid: 01/13/2007.

***Significant Ice Storm Far from Over***
***This is a Dangerous Situation***

Highlights:

– Ice Storm Warnings from Waco to Dallas to Tulsa to St. Louis.

– Winter Storm Warnings across NW OK, OK/TX Panhandles to Kansas City.

– Dallas and Fort Worth will experience the freezing rain late Sunday into Monday.

– San Antonio to Houston stand a good chance of experiencing the freezing rain late Monday into early Wednesday.

– This is a Particularly Dangerous Situation with a very large area affected by freezing rain, along with accumulations greater than 0.25 inches expected. Many areas will experience greater than 0.50 inches along with locations (Houston southward) that rarely experience this type of weather.

– State of Oklahoma, Emergency Operations Center remains at Level 4 Activation (24 hours) with approximately 40,000 customers without power. McAlester is particularly hard hit with 12,000 without power.

Discussion:

There isn't much to say right now regarding the over all weather picture. Little has change since the earlier discussion. The main difference is the upper system is much slower than progged by any of the models, the NAM/UKMET were the only models in the ballpark. Additionally, the cold air is much stronger and deeper than any model progged. Parts are central Texas are dropping below freezing right now, while it is 22F in Oklahoma City. Arctic air continues to filter into Oklahoma and will slowly move south the next 24 hours. Late Sunday the Arctic air will get a strong push and make greater progress south.

As this southward push occurs, the upper system out west will inch closer to the region. Isentropic and dynamic lift will help generate widespread rainfall across the region. The best location for freezing rain will shift southward late Sunday and keep shifting southward through late Tuesday. Forecasts from the Houston NWS office indicates the potential for the Houston Metro to experience freezing rain late Monday into Tuesday.

What we do know is that Waco northward to Oklahoma City and points east will experience significant amounts of freezing rain. How far south this area moves on Monday will be reviewed in later forecasts.

Persons across all of south Texas should closely monitor the latest forecasts and make preparations for winter weather.

I bet ya'll would like some Global Warming now!

For more information, weather news, weather blog, and chase summaries go to http://www.hook-echo.com.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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