Winter Weather Discussion for January 12 – 15, 2007.
**Significant Ice Storm in Progress**
**Preparations Should be Rushed to Completion**
– Significant winter storm is in progress for Oklahoma, heading for Texas.
– Recent data indicates that parts of Texas will also experience this ice storm. Current thinking is north of a line from San Antonio east-northeast to Shreveport is the likely area. Note, this may change during the next 48 hours. Time period is early Sunday through late Monday.
– Ice Storm Warning for all of Oklahoma, except the panhandle (Winter Storm Watch) and far southeast. Also, the northwest part of north Texas. Winter Storm Warning for parts of north-central Texas, including Fort Worth.
– Travel north of Ardmore through tonight is discouraged.
– State Of Oklahoma, Emergency Operations Center is a at Level 4 Activation (24 hours).
Very complex situation occurring and I have lots to do, so there is very little time for a detailed discussion.
The next few hours will see a continuation of the freezing rain and sleet across Oklahoma and north west Texas. Rain will be likely in areas of north and central Texas into southeast Oklahoma. Later tonight there should be a break as the initial weak shortwave trof lifts out of the region.
By Saturday afternoon isentropic lift should increase across the region as the SW U.S. closed low start moving towards the region. Precipitation will again develop across much of the region. Much of Oklahoma will see freezing rain or sleet at this time. How far south the freezing line is depends on the 32F line. Too tough to call right now, but would expect it to be moving through north Texas.
By late Saturday into Monday the upper system will be moving into the region, along with intense isentropic and dynamic lift. Rich Gulf moisture for mid-January standards will be lifted over the cold dome with ample PW values for significant accumulations of ice. It currently appears that parts of central and north Texas will join in on the ice fun around Sunday morning as sub-freezing temperatures move into this region. Right now it is tough to call how much will occur, but NAM precip values are above 1 inch through Monday night.
It is emphasized that this is a very fluid forecast and today is the prime example. Deep cold air has caused Oklahoma's main precip type to be sleet and not freezing rain. Further changes in precip type and amounts are likely to occur. All persons in the threat area are urged to prepare for this event.
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