Winter Weather Discussion 2007-1-6

Winter Weather Discussion for January 12 – 15, 2007.
Valid: 01/11/2007.

**Significant Ice Storm for Oklahoma**
**Prepare Now for this Imminent Storm**

Highlights:

– Canadian cold front to move through Oklahoma overnight into early Friday. Said front will move into Texas Friday afternoon into Saturday.

– Ice Storm Warning for much of Oklahoma generally either side of a line from Altus to Oklahoma City and in northeast Oklahoma. Additionally, the northwest part of north Texas.

– Winter Storm Warning for northwest 1/4 of Oklahoma and east-central Oklahoma.

– Winter Storm Watch for southeast Oklahoma and parts of north Texas.

– This is a Particularly Dangerous Situation with the likelihood of significant amounts of ice accumulations in the above areas, especially the Ice Storm Warning area. Note: It only takes 0.50 inches of ice to bring down power lines.

Discussion:

Little change to the over all setup. Concern remains how fast will the cold air move into the region. Canadian cold front is ahead of schedule, even for the 12z runs. Front is expected to be through Oklahoma by Friday afternoon. Freezing temperatures should be in northwest Oklahoma later in the day. Precipitation in this area will be freezing rain, but amounts should be light.

Showers and thunderstorms are likely across parts of Texas as the cold front moves into the area late Friday.

Freezing rain will become more of a threat late Friday as temperatures cool. NAM still developing lots of QPF for the area overnight into Saturday morning. Potential exists for 0.2 to 0.4 inches of ice across much of Oklahoma. How much east-central and southeast sections get will depend on the location of the 32F line.

Attention then turns to Saturday night as the SW U.S. closed low ejects eastward into the region. Rich Gulf moisture will move north and be lifted over the cold dome. As this occurs, widespread freezing rain is expected across Oklahoma and parts of northwest Texas. Amounts should be at least 0.50 inches, which potential for 1.0 inch or greater in some areas. Still plenty of time to review the expected accumulations and no need to get drawn into this battle.

The location of the freezing line on Sunday will dictate how far south into central Texas the freezing rain gets. It is certainly possible for there to be 0.1 to 0.2 inches of freezing rain in this area by late Sunday.

After all this, bitterly cold Arctic air will move into the region late Sunday. Temperatures in Oklahoma will not reach freezing until Thursday with night time lows in the single digits. Said Arctic air will produce much below normal temperatures for the entire region through Wednesday.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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