This is an update to Discussion 2007-1-3
I'm only sending this to the regular group and the wx blog.
00z NAM has come in much wetter for Saturday night and has indications of 1.0 to 1.25 inches of ice from Altus to Oklahoma City to Tulsa. The entire state would see at least 0.25 inches of ice if the NAM verifies.
For now this is just another model run to me and I'm not going to bite on it. The concern is that the already energized Oklahoma City media will probably jump on it and continue the process towards mass panic.
The issue here is that there is no need to create a stir. Thursday evening would be the proper time to start getting aggressive with this situation and indeed I may have to use enhanced wording. However, there are three more model runs to consider between now and then. Additionally, we are still 72 hours from the onset of the potentially nasty stuff. Finally, the NAM has a history of overdoing precipitation. Doesn't mean this case will be more or less, just something to watch. The 12z run will be a big decider for me. My hope is that the NWS offices hold off on highlights until Thursday afternoon. The 00z GFS hasn't run yet and bets are it will be different, continuing the model feud we know and love so well.
As always, you should be prepared for winter weather. If you feel the need to run to Home Depot for a generator tomorrow, you should stop by the shrink on the way.
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