Weekly Severe Weather Discussion

Severe Weather Discussion for January 8 – 14, 2007.
Valid: 01/08/2007.

Highlights:

– Above normal temperatures through Thursday.

– Much below normal temperatures Friday – Sunday and into next week.

– Winter weather is possible across much of Oklahoma with ice and sleet the initial types late Friday into Saturday. Snow looks possible across parts of the state on Sunday.

Probabilities:

– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: < 5%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: > 75%

Discussion:

Issuing special discussions, so not going to hit the details too hard this morning. Temperatures will be above normal (46F in OKC) through Thursday. By Friday a Canadian cold front should sweep through much of the state and be oozing into Texas by early Saturday. Later on Saturday an Arctic front moves through the region, which should usher in bitterly cold temperatures.

12z models continue at odds regarding the development of a SW U.S. closed low. The GFS has reversed course from the prior four runs back to where it was on Saturday. This is inline with the other models and increases confidence of winter weather across parts of the region. The > 75% is for expected areal coverage of the state and potential for significance (>0.25 inches of precipitation).

For more information, weather news, weather blog, and chase summaries go to http://www.hook-echo.com.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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