Weekly Severe Weather Discussion

Severe Weather Discussion for January 1 – 7, 2007.
Valid: 01/01/2007.

Highlights:

– Above normal temperatures through Friday, chance of rain on Wednesday.

– Below normal temperatures Saturday and Sunday.

– May everyone have a Blessed 2007!

Probabilities:

– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: < 5%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: 10%

Discussion:

Lots of fun last week as the Oklahoma/Texas panhandles got nailed with 10-14 inches of snow. A large part of Texas and Cimarron Counties were without power Saturday into Sunday. Then there were the numerous tornadoes in Texas on Friday, one of which came within three miles of my hometown. That parent supercell produced a tornado before this one that was a long track and killed one person.

Southern stream shortwave trof will move through old Mexico into Texas on Wednesday as split flow continues across the lower 48. This system is our best chance for rain this week. However, Texas will get the most benefit as 55F dewpoints remain in the Gulf and system will be a quick mover. Oklahoma may see some rain late Wednesday into Thursday as the system passes by to the southeast. Other than that, temperatures should be above normal through Friday. Current normal high is 47F, which should drop to 46F (the min) during the week.

12z GFS and 00z ECMWF are in decent agreement that the jet streams will try to phase on Friday as another shortwave trof moves into the region. They do not phase as the systems move across the central U.S. during the day. The GFS runs the northern stream shortwave trof faster across Nebraska –> Ohio leaving the southern stream trof over west Texas late Saturday. As such a cold front will move through Oklahoma early Saturday, lowering temperatures to near normal. Upper system, as currently progged, moves across Oklahoma late Saturday into Sunday. 12z GFS moisture plot shows 50-55F dewpoints in Texas on Friday, but would think that system movement and strength would limit surface moisture return. Also, the rapid movement of the northern jet shortwave trof would indicate that the front will be south of Oklahoma before decent moisture can return. However, I must be careful as the southern stream system may tend to cutoff like so many of its predecessors. The 10% chance of winter
precip is for this potential and will follow up with special discussions IFF (if and only if) something develops. KAMA indicating that light snow is likely in the panhandles, at the very least, so that’s a good position at this point. Another cold front is likely late Sunday behind the developing central U.S. northern stream shortwave trof.

GFS then brings a northern stream shortwave trof into the eastern U.S. through the 9th. I’m iffy on the solution after Friday and certainly for this time period. It does appear that we may be entering a cooler and drier period. GFS pushes moisture well off the coastline for a few days with some return on the 10th. However, confidence is very low at this time. A pattern change does seem in the offering as we’ve been a in a classic El Nino pattern since early December. What we transition to and how long it last will be interesting. I do have to say how much I love those 10 day GFS progs of -43.0F temperatures in Idaho, they deserve it.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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