Severe Weather Discussion for December 25 – 31, 2006.
– Temperatures above normal today thru Friday, with below normal temperatures Saturday and Sunday.
– Chance of severe thunderstorms Thursday – Friday.
– Chance of snow Friday/Saturday.
– I hope everyone had a Blessed Christmas!
– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 25%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: 25%
Tough to get one of these things out when on the road for five hours.
Southern stream shotwave trof located just east of the region Monday night will weaken and lift northeast the 24 hours. Strong CAA occurred across the region on Monday behind this system. Moisture has been pushed well into the Gulf due to the southern extent of this system, so conditions will remain dry through Wednesday. Temperatures will warm as surface ridge moves east and little in the way of really cold air is around.
Next system moves into the western U.S. on Wednesday and looks to be a southern stream shortwave trof as the northern stream is deflected north over western Canada by a ridge. This system is progged to dig into AZ/NM by Thursday, as the two prior systems have done. It is then progged to move into the region by late Thrusday, but chances are we'll feel the affects of it early Thursday. System is also progged to close off by late Thursday and slow its movement over the region. There is a big caveat to the system movement, which has some strong similarities to the one in late November and that is system speed. There is a better than not chance that we'll see a slow trend over the next few days as the models get a better handle on the system.
I agree with AFDOUN on the finer points of this forecast. System placement puts the region in a favorable position for rain, thunderstorms, and possibly snow. 00z GFS has a nose of 50-60F dewpoints in the state on Thursday, with a dryline pushing the moisture rapidly east on Friday. This is probably too fast, but for now I'm not going to get caught up in the finer details. SPC has a slight risk for Texas on Thursday and then part of SE OK on Friday. The 25% is for the expected potential along with a low-end event due to time of year.
As always snow is possible as the system departs on Friday. The potential is iffy at this point due to system location and lack of cold air. Special discussions may be required for this event, but at this point do not expect them as svr and snow will be on the low-end of the spectrum.
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