Weekly Severe Weather Discussion

Highlights:

– Mix bag of frozen precip likely for the panhandle through Wednesday. Slight chance of freezing rain for northwest Oklahoma tonight into early Tuesday. Otherwise, widespread rain and some thunderstorms through Wednesday.

– Temperatures near or below normal all week.

– Chance of winter weather on Sunday.

– Merry Christmas to All!

Probabilities:

– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 10%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: 25%

Discussion:

Complex forecast this week with two systems of interest. Either way, temperatures should be near or below normal all week.

The first system is currently taking shape over the western U.S. This southern stream closed low should move into the region on Tuesday and exit on Wednesday. Prior cold front from Sunday is sitting south of the area with widespread clouds to the north. This is causing some frontogenises, however the over all push on said front has decreased. Pressure falls should start moving into the region with the front nearly stationary. Decent moisture for this time of year is nearby and should help this system be a decent rain maker. Lack of Arctic air means that this will be mainly a rain event for Oklahoma. The panhandle region will see a mix bag, along with the Texas panhandle. Certainly appears that a good swath of snow will occur from the Texas panhandle into Nebraska. Rainfall of 1-2 inches is likely in Oklahoma, a good way to end the year. Models have been very consistent on these points and see no reason to disagree. 12z MOS raises Wednesday temps and I’m not sure if
that is
a good idea. In case the front does get north of us on Wednesday, I’ll stick in the chance for above normal temperatures that day. The 25% winter precip is for the panhandle and expected significance. The 10% svr is for Wednesday.

Thursday – Saturday look to be dry and mild with temperatures near normal. With the normal high near 49F, certainly possible to see Friday/Saturday get close or above that number with only Pacific cool air in place.

Next system of interest approaches the region on Sunday. Models were in great agreement on Sunday and I was tempted to issue a special discussion for winter weather. However, 00z and 12z runs have changed the setup and at this point feel it is best to hold off. There is a chance of winter weather around the 24th, but don’t bet on a white Christmas just yet. I have a 25% for the entire state due to the uncertainties at this point. Cold air will be tough to come by this week and any winter weather will depend on low thickness values and wet bulbing. With the expected holiday travel this makes for a really complex forecast.


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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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