Severe Weather Discussion for December 11 – 17, 2006.
– Much above normal temperatures this week.
– Beautiful late fall week on-tap for the region.
– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: < 5%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: 5%
Strengthening southern stream shortwave trof will translate across the region today. Low level moisture was moving northward into the region this morning with a decent low level jet noted this morning. Low/mid 50s dewpoints are in place across eastern Oklahoma with AOB 50 elsewhere. Low level moisture was noted at 850mb, although rather meager. Timing of system is several hours off and should result in a dry day with limited activity on the dryline or cold front. Better chance of activity is east of the region.
A weak cold front will move through the state today, with little cooling noted. A small northern stream system will move rapidly northeast of the area on Wednesday and this may bring a boundary close to us. Other than that the jet streams remain displaced north of the region and cold air is locked in Canada. This result will be much above normal temperatures this week, currently 51F in OKC. Temperatures should be in the low/mid 60s for Oklahoma much of the week.
00z GFS/ECMWF runs are consistent with advertising a western U.S. longwave trof around the 18th. The impact said trof will have is difficult to forecast as the original forecast for today had a decent chance of precip. The overall mid-level pattern is progressive and this tends to negate precip for this region. However, lack of cold fronts will allow deep layer moisture to accumulate in the Gulf. Should the system in a week be slower than progged, there looks to be a decent chance of precip (same story as last week). There are big differences among the models with the ECMWF much deeper and stronger than the GFS. The current progressive pattern would tend to favor the GFS. OKC is 8.80 inches below normal and looks like we aren’t going to improve much before 2007.
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