Severe Weather Discussion for December 4 – 10, 2006.
– Temperatures warming Monday thru Wednesday. Slightly below normal Thursday – Saturday, warming on Sunday.
– Little to no chance for precipitation.
– All counties in Oklahoma cleared from the Burn Ban.
– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 5%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: 5%
Quiet conditions will be the rule this week. The general feature of interest is the development of a longwave trof over the eastern U.S. by Wednesday and resultant cold front for Oklahoma. A northern stream shortwave trof will move south into the region as the longwave trof develops on Wednesday. This should do little more than produce clouds across Oklahoma. A 1036mb high is expected to move into the region late Wednesday, cooling us down. We won’t get the brunt of this cold air, but it will hang around for a few days. Since deep moisture is on the Texas Coast and the region should be under northwest flow or weak ridging much of the week, little is expected precip wise.
Temperatures should be within 10 degrees of normal much of the week, currently 53F in OKC. The region will continue to warm through Wednesday as the snow pack melts. A cold front will bring us below normal for Thursday through Saturday, with a warmup on Sunday. By Saturday the mid-level flow becomes southwesterly as a southern stream shortwave trof moves into the western U.S. This should continue the warming trend with temperatures in the mid/upper 50s. Models having a tough time resolving a lead shortwave trof on Sunday, so have gone with very low probabilities in case something does drop out of it.
12z GFS and 00z ECMWF in decent agreement on the above features. Lack of penetrating surface ridges in to the Gulf this week will result in 50-60F dewpoints along the coast by early next week. If above mentioned southern stream shortwave trof develops for mid-next week, then precip should be in the offering. Quick look at temperature profiles yields on all liquid event, but it is that time of year.
Rather exciting event last week with a plethora of weather conditions for the state. Parts of eastern Oklahoma got 3-4 inches of rain while the remainder of the state saw 2-12 inches of snow. The Burn Ban has been lifted for the remaining four counties in northern Oklahoma, so all 77 counties are clear. Can’t say I agree with this decision, but it is a political thing. Northern Oklahoma is in a D4 Drought and one snowfall does not a drought breaker make. The drought monitor on Thursday should be interesting. OKC remains over 8 inches below normal for the year, so the drought continues.
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