Winter Weather Discussion – 2006-12-5

Winter Weather Discussion for November 30, 2006.
Valid: 11/29/2006.

**Significant Winter Weather Event In-Progress**

Highlights:

– Winter Storm Warnings for all of Oklahoma, except the panhandle and far southeast. Snow accumulations up to 12 inches are possible in northern Oklahoma with 4-8 inches elsewhere.

– Winter Storm Warning is posted for much of north Texas (including DFW). A mixed bag of precipitation is expected in this area with 1-2 inches of snow by late Thursday.

– Winter Weather Advisory is posted for parts of central Texas.

– Snow Advisory is posted for the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles.

– Preparations for the impending winter storm should be rushed to completion.

– This is a Particularly Dangerous Situation with the likelihood of significant and widespread snowfall amounts. Travel problems are likely from Dallas northward into Kansas and eastward to Arkansas by late Thursday. Travel is strongly discouraged in the winter storm warning areas. Travel problems are already occurring in Oklahoma.

Discussion:

Very impressive closed low is located over NM/CO this evening. 00z NAM-WRF initialized very well and the progs out to 24 hours look good. Closed low will move across the region tomorrow and be located in eastern Oklahoma tomorrow with the leading edge of a 40 unit vortmax moving into Arkansas. Said model has continued previous trend of high QPF across parts of the region. The latest QPF numbers have 12 hour amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 across the northern 2/3rds of Oklahoma with 0.50 to 0.75 from Woodward to Joplin and a max area of 1.00 to 1.25 in far northern OK. I’m going to stick with current amounts, however do not be surprised if higher amounts occur.

Local media is reporting ice in Shawnee and this matches well with RADAR. Expect this trend to continue for a few more hours. Round two will start early in the morning and should be in OKC by 9am. While it will be all snow, it will be on top of ice for parts of Oklahoma. In Texas a mix bag of precipitation is still expected. Amounts will be much less, however with some of the highly elevated surfaces in DFW it wont take much ice to cause problems.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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