Winter Weather Discussion – 2006-12-3

Winter Weather Discussion for November 29 – 30, 2006.
Valid: 11/28/2006.

Highlights:

– Severe Thunderstorms are likely across the eastern 1/3rd of Oklahoma southward into central Texas on Wednesday. Primary threats are large hail and damaging winds; however, isolated tornadoes are possible.

– An Arctic cold front will move through the entire region by Thursday afternoon. Friday morning temperatures will range from the teens in Oklahoma to the low 30s along the Texas Coast.

– Winter precipitation is likely across much of Oklahoma and parts of north Texas late Wednesday into Thursday.

– A Winter Storm Watch is posted for the eastern 1/3rd of Oklahoma Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening.

– A Winter Storm Watch is posted for parts of north Texas (excluding DFW, watch is generally the northern two rows of counties) for Thursday. Sleet and snow accumulations of 1-3 inches are possible. The snow should end by late Thursday afternoon.

– A Winter Weather Advisory is posted for central and parts of western Oklahoma late Wednesday through Thursday afternoon. Sleet and freezing rain will move into this area around 1:00am Thursday with a changeover to all snow around sunrise. The snow should end by Thursday evening in this area.

– Prepare now for the expected cold temperatures and winter precipitation. Tips may be located at: http://www.redcross.org/services/prepare/0,1082,0_252_,00.html

Discussion:

Arctic cold front is still on track to move into Oklahoma Wednesday morning and the main body of Texas late Wednesday. Said front should clear the Texas Coast by Thursday afternoon. Models biases continue regarding the movement of said front, for now going with consensus on the frontal movement. In Oklahoma, temperatures will start out in the 60s on Wednesday, dropping rapidly into the 40s once the front passes. Much of Texas will wake up to colder weather Thursday, except for southeast sections.

Severe thunderstorms are likely along the front in Oklahoma. In Texas, thunderstorms should continue along the front as it progresses southeast. The most favored location for intense activity will be north Texas into a small part of southeast Oklahoma. This is the most favored area for tornadoes early in the event. Primary threats with all activity will be large hail and damaging winds.

Southern stream closed low will approach the region late Wednesday and move across OK/TX on Thursday. Surface temperatures will cool rapidly behind the cold front with sub-freezing temperatures expected across much of Oklahoma and parts of north Texas late Wednesday. A rather wide variety of weather is expected across the region and will refer those that are interested to the NWS websites. At this juncture, do not expect any widespread significant winter weather. The most likely location for problems will be northeast Oklahoma relative to snow and southeast Oklahoma relative to freezing rain. This does not mean there won’t be isolated travel problems elsewhere, like Oklahoma City, as bridges and overpasses will probably ice up. Parts of north Texas will also see sleet and snow. Here, as in parts of Oklahoma, do not expect any major problems. Conditions should clear up by Friday, if not by Thursday afternoon. Ground temperatures are in the upper 50s/low 60s and the
precipitation should not be heavy enough to overcome this warmth.

18z NAM-WRF has a little higher QPF than prior runs. For now this has already been accounted for by the NWS offices and see little impact unless the QPF continues to increase.

For more information, weather news, weather blog, and chase summaries go to http://www.hook-echo.com.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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