Weekly Severe Weather Discussion

Severe Weather Discussion for November 20 – 26, 2006.
Valid: 11/20/2006.

Highlights:

– Temperatures much above normal Tuesday – Thursday. The other days, temperatures should be slightly above normal.

– No chance of rain through Saturday.

Probabilities:

– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: < 5%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: < 5%

Discussion:

Models in good agreement through Friday on weather features. This week will have very pleasant late fall weather, with temperatures well above normal part of the week. Chance of rain is zero through Saturday, there is a slight chance of rain on Sunday.

Southern stream closed low will develop near southeastern U.S. later today and remain in place through Thursday. Upstream heights rise above 580dm across Oklahoma. This should allow at least low/mid 70s for much of the state Tuesday – Thursday. There is potential for warmer temperatures if a downslope component can develop, which would push temperatures into record territory. For now the much above normal will work as normal is 57F.

Heights start to fall Thursday morning as a northern stream shortwave trof moves into the Dakotas. This trof will do little for us other than bring a Pacific cold front through the region on Friday. Models start to differ at this point, which is not a shocker. 00z and 06z GFS runs are different and the 00z ECMWF has its own opinion. I’m inclined to go with the 00z ECMWF since it continues more of the same for the region. It would lead to very slight rain chance on Sunday as a broad southern stream shortwave trof approaches the region. The 06z GFS would argue for much better rain chances as it develops a much more amplified trof at the same time. The forecast for Friday thru Sunday will yield temperatures slightly above normal, with a slight chance of rain on Sunday.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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