Severe Weather Discussion for November 14 – 15, 2006.
– Significant wind event is likely tonight into Wednesday. Unlike most of our wind events, this one is not related to severe thunderstorms.
– High Wind Warning is posted for much of western/central Oklahoma tonight through Wednesday afternoon.
Models are in good agreement with the incoming system. Said system will under go rapid deepening during the next 24 hours as -24C 500mb temperatures advect into the system. The surface low will deepen as it moves across Oklahoma later tonight becoming a 987mb low as it moves into AR Wednesday morning. The resulting pressure gradient across Oklahoma will be at least 30mb from eastern Oklahoma to western Oklahoma as the surface high moves in behind the departing surface low.
12z NAM-WRF wind fields are used for this forecast and indicate very windy conditions across the state. 850mb winds are progged at 60-80kts Wednesday morning with surface winds of 30-40kts. The surface winds represent expected sustained wind speeds and do not account for gusts. Wind gusts around 55-65mph are likely across parts of western/central Oklahoma through noon Wednesday. The pressure gradient should rapidly relax during the afternoon hours on Wednesday as the upper system leaves the region.
It is emphasized that this is a dangerous situation with widespread strong winds likely across the region. Structural damage is possible along with power outages. Good point to all of this is temperatures will be near 40F. While kind of cool, much better than this situation in February with 20F temperatures.
As previously noted, severe thunderstorms are not expected in the high wind warning area. Severe thunderstorms are possible in far eastern Oklahoma. However, much of this event will be a result of pressure gradient force (PGF). Kind of exciting to us geeks as we really see such neat things happen. We’ll see how excited I am about it tomorrow.
Level 1 – Normal
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