Severe Weather Discussion for November 13 – 19, 2006.
– Pleasant mid-fall week ahead for the region. Temperatures will be close to normal (except for Tuesday) with little to no chance for rain.
– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 10%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: < 5%
Quiet week on-tap as another eastern U.S. longwave trof is progged to develop by the ECMWF and GFS. The 00z runs of these models are in decent agreement through Day 7 and the 12z GFS is singing the same song. The net impact will be more of the same weather from the past few weeks.
Upper system will dig southeast over the region on Tuesday. This should produce brisk southerly flow and warm temperatures. Progged temps for Tuesday are in the upper 60s/low 70s in Oklahoma, this looks good. Moisture return is meager and see little chance at any more than isolated showers across much of the state. The exception is eastern OK where upper 50s dewpoints may combine with mid-level dynamics for severe. Primary threat is large hail. SPC has part of eastern OK in a slight risk for tomorrow, so I have to go 10% on the severe prob. Cold front will pass through the state late Tuesday into Wednesday bringing us back to normal on temperatures. Upper system wraps up into a large closed low as it progresses eastward Thu/Fri. This will place the region in northwest flow aloft, a dry flow for this time of year.
Models want to amplify the ridge over the western U.S. late in the week, but this has little meaning to us. Another shortwave trof dives southeast from western Canada late Saturday as it reloads the eastern U.S longwave trof. This system should bring another cold front into the region. The flow doesn’t look to change much after this forecast period, although I’m not biting into the amplified ridge at this point.
Overall should be dry with temperatures near normal (60F in OKC). OKC is almost 8 inches below normal on yearly precip. I see little chance of making much of that up by late December, so we may end another year about 20% down on rainfall.
Thanksgiving Day Prog: Current progs and coordination with Andy yield temperatures near normal and little/no chance of precip on Thanksgiving Day. Now, if I can jinx myself and get some fun weather I hope I just did it.
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