Severe Weather Discussion for November 6 – 12, 2006.
– Much above normal temperatures this week, after today of course.
– Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms on Friday.
– Temperatures slightly above normal Sat/Sun.
– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 15%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: < 5%
Models in good agreement through Thursday regarding the general atmospheric pattern. Weak southern stream shortwave trof will intensify and dig southeast along the coast line by late Tuesday into the southeast U.S. This system will move slowly east and should leave the U.S. by late Thursday. 850mb and surface moisture will be pushed well south of the region late today into tomorrow. General pattern will be for zonal flow the next few days as little cooling is associated with this system. Highs should be well above normal (currently 64F in OKC) for Tue – Fri. Today would have been much warmer without the clouds. Not a shocker and it happens.
Forecast problems develop this weekend as the dueling models (GFS and ECMWF) are at it again. GFS carves out a broad longwave trof over the western U.S. Friday into the weekend. It eventually intensifies the trof and swings it out into the central U.S. next week. The ECMWF is stronger with the lead shortwave trof and brings a phased system into the region on Friday, with a storng cold front behind it. There is really no reason to go with one over the other. However, if I had to pick, the GFS is it due to persistence. The trend this season has been for intense/amplified systems progged by the models to end up much weaker. The models may be hinting at a pattern change and hence the issues. I’ve noted that they really want to transition to a western/central U.S. longwave trof. However, that has yet to materialize and continues to be progged at the 6-8 day period.
This weekend is certainly a tough call, but I’m not biting into the big cool down just yet. Not with the models trending from amplified to weak systems. Despite which model is picked, there should be a southern stream system move through on Friday. Favorable surface moisture leads to a chance of thunderstorms, albeit currently a limited chance for severe.
Tropics are quiet, 24 days left in this season.
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