Weekly Severe Weather Discussion

Severe Weather Discussion for October 30 – November 5, 2006.
Valid: 10/30/2006.

Highlights:

– Warm today, dropping to below normal for Tue/Wed, with a warmup into the weekend.

Probabilities:

– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: < 5%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: < 5%

Discussion:

Little to no chance of precip this week and once again it is an issue as OKC is -7.28 inches below normal. The longwave pattern does not favor rainfall this week and the moisture will once again get pushed away before any rainfall can occur.

Southern stream shortwave trof will move across the region late tonight, slightly out of phase with its northern partner. These systems will bring a cold front through the region by late Tuesday, in Oklahoma early Tuesday. This will usher in much cooler weather, especially when compare to the warm temperatures this past weekend. Current normal high is 67F in OKC. Temperatures will be much below normal Tue/Wed.

Another eastern U.S. longwave trof takes shape by Thursday and dominates the weather pattern through Saturday. The general mid-level flow here will be northerly and should keep things on the cool side. I’m not going as cool as the weather service for Fri – Sun, I think a warm-up into the 60s is likely. This would put temps near normal for the latter part of the forecast. On caveat is progged western U.S. longwave trof, did I type that? If this feature happens, which would be a pleasant surprise, it may lower temps on Sunday due to cloud cover. Best chance of rain looks to be beyond this forecast period around Tue-Thu next week.


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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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