Severe Weather Discussion 2006-9-2

Severe Weather Discussion for October 26, 2006.
Valid: 10/26/2006.

Highlights:

– Severe thunderstorms are possible in eastern OK/TX this afternoon and tonight. Primary threat is damaging windsl; however isolated tornadoes and large hail cannot be ruled out.

Discussion:

Model progs from yesterday ended up correct as 850mb moisture has been pushed well east into eastern OK/TX. As such the over all severe threat will be in the eastern 1/3rd of OK/TX. CAPE values were struggling this afternoon but have managed to reach 750-1000 J/Kg in parts of eastern OK/TX. Current trends indicate that values around 1500 J/Kg should be reached by late this afternoon. The dryline is located in central Oklahoma and this feature should continue slowly eastward today. This feature will be the main focus through late afternoon for storm initiation. Later tonight the cold front should catch up to the dryline and result in a squall line.

Primary threat appears to be damaging winds, although isolated tornadoes are certainly possible. Large hail is also possible in northeast OK near the cold core. All activity should clear the area by Friday morning with strong northerly winds the main issue beyond late tonight.

Probabilities:

None

Chase Status:

Level 1 – Normal

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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