Severe Weather Discussion for October 23 – 29, 2006.
– Chance of showers and thunderstorms for much of the region late Tuesday through Wednesday.
– Over all a very pleasant autumn week in store for the region. Temperatures should be very close to normal.
– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: < 5%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: < 5%
While I remain annoyed at the plethora of eastern U.S. longwave trofs; I certainly cannot complain about the beautiful autumn weather we will experience this week.
Semi-permanent eastern U.S. longwave trof will continue east off the U.S. coastline by early Tuesday. Upper flow backs to the wester and a little southwester by late in the day as a weak subtropical system moves into the region. Farther northwest a southern stream shortwave trof is progged to move east-southeast and absorbed the subtropical system. Models indicate that the Gulf will initially be closed until midday Tuesday when the surface ridge moves far enough east for moisture return to begin. Moisture return begins in earnest late Tuesday with 60F dewpoints in the state by midday Wednesday. Models differ on the speed of the southern stream shortwave trof and I do like the 12z NAM-WRF timing better. Either way, the upper system should clear the region by late Wednesday. Best rainfall appears to be in Texas and eastern Oklahoma. This is consistent with an upper system approaching from the northwest. Hopefully we’ll see 0.25 to 0.50 in central sections. There is an outside
chance for severe thunderstorms in Texas. SPC has a 5% area up on Wednesday.
By Thursday northerly flow should dominate the region as the upper system moves east. NAM-WRF is slower as it wraps up a large closed low over the region. This should have little affect on the sensible weather. The air behind the cold front early Thursday will be of Pacific origin, so cooling should be slight. Over all, temperatures should be close to normal (currently 71F in OKC).
00z GFS shows a weak subtropical system approaching the region on Sunday. Confidence in this feature is low and moisture looks too limited to include precip ATTM.
No activity in the tropics.
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