Severe Weather Discussion for October 9 – 15, 2006.
– Temperatures below normal through Saturday.
– Chance of showers and thunderstorms tonight into Tuesday with a slight chance next Saturday/Sunday.
– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: �25%
– Storm Chase: �< 5%
– Winter Precip: �5%
A roller coaster week ahead as a strong cold front is expected through the region. �Models remain consistent regarding the longwave pattern. �They develop a large closed low across the northern U.S. by early Wednesday. �This will push an Arctic front through the region by late in the day. �Due to time of year, warm ground, and drought conditions; the cold front won’t be as bad as it would in January. �However, it will produce a significant cool down with temperatures in the 50/60s common on Thursday. �Additionally the first freeze of the year is possible for parts of the region Friday morning.
Before the front gets here the SW U.S. closed low will eject in pieces, with the first expected on Tuesday. �This will likely produce thunderstorms along a stalled cold front in parts of southeast Oklahoma. �SPC has a slight risk up for this region and looks good. �The severe chance is for tomorrow in Oklahoma and Texas. �Weak front will continue moving south late Tuesday and eventually be over taken by the Arctic front on Wednesday.
Temperatures should remain below normal much of the week and a few days will see much below normal temperatures (Wed-Fri). Current normal high is 76F in OKC. The big hope is that much needed rainfall will occur later tonight through Tuesday. GFS is rather bullish with precip amounts and for now will go with it. OUN is calling for 1-2 inches and let us hope it happens.
Saturday and Sunday should see a warming trend, but this may be tempered by mid/high level clouds as the remaining pieces of the SW U.S. system ejects eastward. Moisture should be limited but enough may get drawn up into Texas for showers and thunderstorms. Models are now indicating that moisture won’t get pushed as far into the Gulf as earlier indicated. This would stand to reason as the high won’t be very strong and it will move rapidly east. Don’t think much severe wise will occur in Oklahoma and we may see more over running than anything. Texas stands the best chance of storms, but once again moisture will be an issue.
Tropics are seasonably quiet and don’t expect much.
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