Severe Weather Discussion for October 2 – 8, 2006.
– Much above normal temperatures all week.
– Slight chances of thunderstorms late Wednesday and then on Sunday.
– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 15%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: < 5%
Longwave pattern will deamplify for a few days as large longwave trof moves east into the Atlantic. Looking back west a southern stream system is progged by all models to close off and then progress rapidly eastward late in the week. Models build and maintain a 500mb 588dm ridge over the south central U.S. and this feature remains a player in sensible weather for much of the week.
Overall, temperatures should remain much above normal (currently 79F in OKC) this week. Chance of precip is rather small with some potential late Tuesday into Wednesday as a cold front nears the state. Dewpoints should remain in the upper 50s as shallow moisture mixes out during the afternoon hours and Gulf remains closed. With a cold front in the region, can’t rule out some shower activity.
Upper system moves north of the region on Saturday with the best lift in Nebraska, northward. Models indicate that the surface and 850mb ridges finally move east on Sunday allowing for Gulf moisture to return. At this point do not expect much activity until Monday when the main front enters the state. Models do develop some QPF late Sunday long a boundary in the Texas panhandle. Confidence is rather low on severe potential, so will stay with the 15% for now. Monday looks like a better chance for severe as the cold front moves through the state. This is beyond the forecast period, but nothing significant is expected.
Tropics continue to quiet down with Issac the only thing out there and it should be gone by Tuesday morning.
For more information, weather news, weather blog, and chase summaries go to http://www.hook-echo.com.