Severe Weather Discussion for September 25 – October 1, 2006.
– Beautiful week ahead with near normal temperatures Monday – Wednesday. Temperatures dip on Thursday and Friday, warming back up this weekend.
– Slight chance of showers on Wednesday.
– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 15%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: < 5%
Pleasant week ahead with temperatures near normal much of the week. Today thru Wednesday will see temperatures right at normal for this time of year (81F in OKC). Thursday and Friday will see temperatures much below normal with a warming trend into the weekend.
Upper system will continue to move east out of the Northeast U.S. today. Models are in good agreement that a northern stream shortwave trof will dig south out of Canada late Tuesday and curve out a longwave trof in the eastern U.S. Said trof will result in NW Flow for this area and allow a rather strong cold front to move through the region. Longwave trof reloads on Saturday and moves east out of the U.S.
Moisture will try to return on Wednesday, ahead of the initial cold front. Showers and thunderstorms are possible late Wednesday with 55-60F dewpoints in the state. Moisture return remains questionable, but it is still September. For this time period I’m going 15% on the severe chances, do not expect much more than general severe for the region. Last week was a nice surprise and I didn’t do that well with it. However, the majority of us were slow to spin-up on the severe weather potential.
Tropics are quiet today with NHC monitoring a tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic.
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