Severe Weather Discussion for September 17, 2006.
– Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today from Texas northeast to Wisconsin. Primary threats are large hail and strong winds.
Concentrated severe weather event occurred across parts of the north-central U.S. yesterday with 111 severe weather reports so far. Across the Oklahoma region, severe weather was tough to find. The best stuff occurred in Kansas with little to no activity in Oklahoma. This was a combination of a Godzilla cap and warm 500mb temperatures.
Despite the lack of severe weather, widespread rainfall is occurring across Oklahoma. Parts of central Oklahoma have seen over 2 inches of rain as tropical moisture from Lane has been entrained into the upper system moving through the northern U.S. The cold front is located in southern Oklahoma and is making steady progress southeast. A narrow window for severe weather will be present through mid-afternoon. After that time, the front should clear the state. Threat of severe weather will continue on south into Texas and east into Arkansas. However, primary threat looks to be heavy rainfall as cloud cover reduces daytime heating. Many of the areas experiencing the heavy rainfall are in a D3 and D4 drought, so flash flooding should be limited.
Models indicate another western U.S. trof by late next week. Moisture return is questionable given incoming Pacific high. However, 00z GFS does indicate 55-60F dewpoints over the region as the upper system arrives late Thursday. Another item to note is the timing difference among the models with the ECMWF 24 hours slower. For now will monitor, but discussions may be continued for this time period.
Level 1 – Normal
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