Severe Weather Discussion for September 16 – 17, 2006.
– Outbreak of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes is likely this afternoon across Nebraska/Iowa into Minnesota. Severe thunderstorms are also likely farther south across Kansas and Oklahoma. Primary threats in the KS/OK area are large hail and strong winds.
– Severe thunderstorms are likely Sunday across central/northern Texas northeast into Ohio. Primary threats are large hail and strong winds.
No change to prior reasoning for today. Parameters coming together for a significant severe weather event for parts of Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota, and South Dakota. Of course that region is out of my forecast area, but still an interesting event. Across this area storms should develop later today into tonight along the incoming cold front. OUN is doing an 18z sounding, which should yield some interesting results. ARPS model has CAPE values around 3000 J/Kg and LIs to -8. Storm initiation has been attempted several times in the panhandles along the outflow boundary located on the TX/OK border. If mid-level winds do not increase today, conditions will be favorable for left-splitting supercells. The tornado threat in Oklahoma looks rather low. The primary threat remains large hail and strong winds.
Same reasoning for tomorrow, other than it appears the severe potential will reach into Texas. Cold front should progress on through Oklahoma tonight, contrary to my forecast yesterday, due partially to convection. Primary threats tomorrow are large hail and strong winds.
Risk area for any part of OK/TX (valid: 09/17 Day 1):
Level 1 – Normal
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