Severe Weather Discussion – 2006-8-3

Severe Weather Discussion for September 15 – 17, 2006.
Valid: 09/14/2006.

Highlights:

– Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles on Friday. Primary threat is strong winds.

– Active severe weather day is expected on Saturday from northern Oklahoma into Iowa. Primarty threats are isolated tornadoes, large hail, and strong winds.

– Severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday for eastern half of Oklahoma east-northeast to Ohio.

Discussion:

Little change to forecast reasonaing at ths point. I still believe that isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Friday as deep layer moisture rapidly moves into the region.

Saturday remains the day of interest, but unfortunately the best stuff will be well north of the region. Severe thunderstorms are expected by Saturday afternoon along the dryline in Kansas and cold front farther north. SPC has a 30% area up in the slight risk and this looks good.

Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma into Arkansas on Sunday as the cold front moves through the state. This is likely to be a squall line with little chance for supercell activity.
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Probabilities:

Risk area for any part of OK/TX (valid: 09/15 Day 1, Day 2, Day 3):

Slight: 50%, 100%, 100%
Moderate: 0%, 10%, 10%
High: 0%, 0%, N/A

Chase Status:

Level 1 – Normal

For more information, weather news, weather blog, and chase summaries go to http://www.hook-echo.com.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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