Severe Weather Discussion for September 4 – 10, 2006.
– Below normal temperatures again this week. Chance of showers today for southern Oklahoma and Texas.
– Chance of thunderstorms late Friday into Saturday.
– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 20%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: < 5%
Last Monday’s GFS was sure correct by progging the closed low over the central U.S. this weekend. Said closed low is forecast to open up and progress eastward into the eastern U.S. by Wednesday as it becomes part of the eastern U.S. longwave trof. The central U.S. will be under northwesterly flow aloft through much of the weak, which will keep things cool. Temperatures should remain in the low/mid 80s through the week. Current normal high is 88F and OKC is 5.21 inches below normal on yearly rainfall.
Rainfall is occurring across parts of southern Oklahoma into Texas this morning. This process should consider has mid-level moisture moves into the region from John and interacts with the frontal boundary over the region.
Models are consistent in bringing a southern stream system into the region on Friday into Saturday. The GFS is flipping around on this feature, with the 00z GFS much weaker with the system. Additionally, moisture return may be an issue as deep moisture gets pushed to the Gulf as a cold front moves through the region the next few days. However, despite the cold front, models show dewpoints in the low 60s this coming weekend. This is enoguh, when combined with even a weak system, to put in storm chances. I will stay low on the probabilities with a low-end slight risk if anything.
The tropics remain seasonably active as TD6 formed in the central Atlantic. This system is progged to move northwest for a day or so and then turn west. GFS wants to recurve it short of the east coast, but that is nine days away. The max peak for tropical season is September 10th.
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