Severe Weather Discussion for August 21 – 27, 2006.
– Near normal temperatures through Wednesday, warming to near 100F late in the week.
– Cold front is possible late Saturday, how I love these Day 6 cold fronts.
– Showers and thunderstorms remain possible through Wednesday with additional activity on Saturday.
– Severe Thunderstorms in Okahoma: 10%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: < 5%
Impressive non-severe MCS moving across eastern Oklahoma this afternoon with an MCV in central Kansas. 12 hour Mesonet rainfall map shows widespread .50 to 1.0 inch rainfall across northeast Oklahoma. Expect these values to continue climbing as above mentioned MCS continues east. Out west a few areas above one inch accumulation are noted. Additional development is likely this afternoon in uncapped atmosphere. Severe weather is not likely due to weak winds aloft and little forcing; however downbursts are possible with any mature storm.
Rain chances remain in the forecast through Wednesday as reinforced frontal boundary remains in the region and upper ridge to the south. After Wednesday models hint that the front should dissipate and the upper ridge intensifies across the region. The GFS has flipped around a lot the past few days in this part of the extended. Forecast confidence Thu-Sun is rather low this week. For now, I’m sticking with warm temperatures since the drought does continue. Widespread 100F temperatures are likely Thu/Fri. However, temperatures above 103F are not expected.
Next area of interest is the cold front for late Saturday. The GFS has hinted at this feature for the past several ones, with a few notable exceptions. The 12z Sun run was rather flat with the mid-level flow, but doesn’t seem to make sense given the current pattern. Additionally, presistence would argue for a frontal passage without a strong ridge in the central U.S. and presence of a shortwave trof in Nebraska. For now will go with cooling in the northern part of Oklahoma on Saturday and then statewide on Sunday as the cold front moves through the state. Like the past several fronts, this one should hang up in the southern part of the state.
NHC is watching a tropical wave way out in the eastern Atlantic Ocean. Today starts the ramp up to the busiest part of tropical storm season. September 10th, is the climatological max for activity. Should be interesting to see what the next week brings.
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