Weekly Severe Weather Discussion

Severe Weather Discussion for August 14 – 20, 2006.
Valid: 08/14/2006.

Highlights:

– Near normal temperatures today and tomorrow in Oklahoma.

– Decent chance of showers for parts of north Texas into Oklahoma today and tomorrow.

– Return to above normal temperatures Wednesday through Sunday.

Probabilities:

– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 10%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: < 5%

Discussion:

Upper ridge has weakened across the region this morning as a cold front moves through Oklahoma. The northern jet stream continues to be active and this has allowed the current cold front to move into the region. Shortwave trof supporting said front should move east later today into the Northeast U.S. Said cold front will continue moving south aided by outflow and shortwave trof. Outflow boundary is currently just south of OKC and OUN indicates it will probably move into southern Oklahoma by late today. The cold front will slow move through northern Oklahoma during the day. South of the outflow boundary, temperatures will be quite warm with readings near 100F. Farther north temperatures will be in the mid 90s and then north of the cold front in the upper 80s. May be even cooler north of the front if thick clouds hang in during the day.

Showers continue to be possible on Tuesday, however chances decrease late Tuesday into Wednesday. Upper ridge builds back over the region on Wednesday with a warming trend. Temperatures should rebound to near 100F and stay through Sunday. There is an outside chance of a cold front late Saturday as another shortwave trof moves through the northern U.S. Either way, temperatures should remain above normal (93F in OKC) Wed – Sun.

OKC is 7.41 inches below normal, so we certainly could use the rainfall. Going to take lots of rainfall to undo the current drought and expect warm temperatures until it happens. OKC has had 30 days of 100F + temperatures and see little reason not to break the 32 set in 2000. Obviously this is not a record, but an indication of how hot 2006 has been.

The tropics are quiet, although NHC continues to monitor tropical waves.


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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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