Severe Weather Discussion for August 7 – 13, 2006.
– Hot and dry this week.
– Slight chance of showers today into early Tuesday.
– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 5%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: < 5%
Weak westward moving low should continue through Texas today with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in central Texas to southern Oklahoma. Best chance will be south of Oklahoma. Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible given temperatures in the upper 90s to 103F and dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s. Upper system should continue on west and eventually dissipate. Affects on the region should decrease after today. Temperatures will be in the upper 90s to 104F region wide today.
Tuesday may be a little cooler as affects from the weakening upper low in Texas cools 850mb temperatures. However, upper 90s are still likely with widespread 100F possible.
Wednesday through Friday will be hot with widespread temperatures above 103F for much of the region. The GFS and NAM-WRF continue to show a 594dm 500mb ridge moving west towards the region. It centers over the region on Wednesday, resulting in the rather dramatic warm-up. 00z GFS weakens the ridge by this weekend and the later periods of the NAM-WRF do the same. I’m not convinced at this point given the prolonged drought. However, there seems to be decent southern stream activity in the northern U.S. and that would tend to flatten the ridge. All in all, summer time continues with temperatures well above normal (94F in OKC) region wide this week. If the models are correct about this weekend, we may see temperatures dropping to around 100F.
Rainfall continues to be a much needed event as the drought monitor for the region continues to get worse. OKC is 6.94 inches below normal for the year and it shows.
Tropics wise, Chris died a horrible death and didn’t come back. There is wave about 1400 miles east of the Windward Islands that NHC is watching. Other than that, the tropics are quiet.
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