Chris Barely a Tropical Storm
At 7:00am CDT:
– A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Turks and Caicos Islands, and southern Bahamas.
– Tropical Storm Chris was located 285 miles east-southeast of Grand Turk Island. Movement is towards the west-northwest at 12mph, maximum sustained winds are near 40mph, and minimum surface pressure is 1012mb.
– This is the last discussion on Chris, unless the system reorganizes.
Chris continues on the expected forecast track this morning with motion a little south of earlier progs. This is not a drastic change and is reasonable given the 594dm 500mb ridge to the north. Steering currents will continue to move Chris towards the west at about 10-12mph.
Intensity has become a real issue during the past 12 hours and the future of Chris is in doubt. Currently the system is very close to a mid-level low and is getting sheared. This was noted in last night’s NHC discussion with the affects being noted this morning. The other issue is that even if Chris survives the shear it is now progged to move over Hispaniola and in the current weakened state I wouldn’t be surprised if it didn’t survive. If the low level circulation can survive into the Gulf, there is the potential for Chris to regenerate.
The forecast track beyond three days is very iffy given the weakened state of Chris and the potential for it to become a shallow system.
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