Severe Weather Discussion for July 31 – August 6, 2006.
– Hot temperatures again this week. A slight cool down in Oklahoma on Thu/Fri, warming back up for the weekend.
– Chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly northern OK/KS Wed-Fri.
– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 5%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: < 5% Discussion: Summer pattern continues across the lower 48 as the 500mb ridges sits across the eastern U.S. GFS and NAM-WRF continue to prog this feature across the eastern U.S. this week, extending into central sections. Out west, shortwave trofs will weaken as they move into confluent flow across the northern U.S. The presence of these shortwave trofs will allow a cold front to move into Oklahoma around Thursday. However, mid-level flow is not favorable for a cold front into Oklahoma. The more likely scenario will be outflow from Kansas storms moving into the state as the affective front. Latest NAM-WRF is rather slow with the front and right now it seems questionable that it will make it through Oklahoma. Most likely occurrence is it hanging up somewhere in southern Oklahoma, if it makes it that far south. The front will wash out on Saturday, with a return (or a continuation) of above normal temperatures. Unlike my forecast last week, I’m going with widespread 100F + temperatures all
week. The front is the only caveat but will be a temporary reprieve for those areas lucky enough to be on the north side of said boundary. Current normal high remains 94F.
Oklahoma City is 6.62 inches below normal on yearly rainfall and the drought monitor reflects it with the western 2/3rd of Oklahoma in a D3 – Extreme Drought. A small part of north Texas is in a D4 – Exceptional Drought. I’d expect the D4 area to grow if we don’t see some decent rain within the next few weeks.
The tropics remain seasonably quiet with a few tropical waves in the Atlantic. So far neither of them has shown signs of sustained development. The one east of the Windward Islands is organized but it has been this way for about two days.by