Severe Weather Discussion for July 24 – 30, 2006.
– Hot and dry this week with temperatures above normal.
– Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible across east Texas into southeast Oklahoma Tue-Thu. Northern Oklahoma may see some shower activity mid week.
– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 5%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: < 5% Discussion: 500mb pattern will gradually deamplify over the next few days as a few more shortwave trofs move into the mean eastern U.S. longwave trof position. By late Thursday said longwave trof should be gone with generally zonal flow across the region and northern U.S. Upper ridge will remain in place across the western U.S. through Thursday. After Thursday models indicate a shortwave trof moving into the northwest U.S. as the ridge moves east into the central U.S. Temperatures are forecast in the mid 90s through Wednesday with a warming trend into the upper 90s for the remainder of the forecast period. This puts daily highs about 3-5 degrees above normal all week (currently 94F in OKC). Widespread triple digit temperatures are not expected, however given the very dry ground, may easily occur. Showers are possible, mainly in northern Oklahoma, as above mentioned shortwave trof moves east across the central U.S. A weak cold front will be in the KS/OK region, which should provide a focus for convection during the afternoon hours. Dewpoints have recovered to the upper 50s and low 60s across the state, with deeper moisture in Texas. NHC is watching an area of disturbed weather across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. This disturbance is slowly moving northward and so far development is limited. However, conditions are progged to become more favorable for tropical development. Even if tropical development does not occur, this system should move onshore later this week resulting in showers and thunderstorms for eastern Texas. Southeast Oklahoma may get in on the action, but a little too far out to predict. All in all, a typical summer pattern. Tropics remain seasonably quiet with Beryl making a brief appearance last week. Last year Gert formed today, bringing the total to three tropical storms and three hurricanes. Emily had already been a Cat 5. This year, two tropical storms.