Tropical Storm Watch is Discontinued
At 10:00am CDT:
– Tropical Storm Beryl was located 105 miles east-northeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Movement is towards the north at 9mph, maximum sustained winds are near 45mph, and minimum surface pressure is 1004mb.
– The Tropical Storm Watch for North Carolina has been canceled.
– Beryl is not expected to impact the U.S. and this will be the final discussion unless a threat develops.
Beryl staying farther east than expected as the system organizes and better data is receiving from the upper air network/flights. 12z NAM-WRF brings Beryl very close to the coastline on Wednesday and then runs it to the northeast. FSU-MM5 run is father east and keeps Beryl offshore. The majority of the model guidance keeps Beryl east of the coast through the period and NHC’s official track does the same. Beryl should move slowly for the next 24 hours before a shortwave trof now over Ohio reaches the system and accelerates it northeast.
Intensity wise, Beryl may briefly strengthen today but do not expect anything over 55mph, per NHC. Mid-level shear will be increasing as the shortwave trof approaches Beryl today and it will be moving over cooler waters. As such, Beryl should not make hurricane status and probably will not intensify much beyond 55mph. If so, the intensification will be brief. Beryl should be extratropical by late Friday.
Discussions on Beryl are discontinued unless a threat to the U.S. redevelops.
For more information, weather news, weather blog, and chase summaries go to http://www.hook-echo.com.