The National Hurricane Center has initiated advisories on Tropical Depression 2.
At 10:00 CDT –
– A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for eastern North Carolina, from north of Cape Lookout northward to South of Currituck Beach Light.
– Tropical Depression 2 was located 220 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Movement is towards the north at 5mph, maximum sustained winds are near 35mph, and minimum surface pressure is 1011mb.
– TD2 is forecast to strengthen and may become a tropical storm later today. If so, the name wlll be Beryl.
06z GFS/12z NAM-WRF both agree that TD2 will continue drifting north and should move into the watch area by late Wednesday/ early Thursday. This motion is supported by weak 500mb flow over TD2 with the 594dm ridge currently west over the central U.S. There seems to be a slight weakness in the ridge over this area as a shortwave trof moves east across the northern U.S. The first shortwave trof, currently moving north of TD2 will probably not pick it up, however the next one on Thursday/Friday should be close enough to recurve TD2, although this will be post landfall.
The intensity forecast is rather tricky with TD2 over 82-83F SST’s. Currently NHC is going for 65mph at landfall or just under hurricane strength. Satellite presentation is showing decent outflow from TD2 and NHC’s own discussion certainly give credibility to TD2 becoming a tropical storm. At this point, proximity to land and time till landfall should limit TD2 from becoming a hurricane.by