Severe Weather Discussion for July 3 – 9, 2006.
– Chance of thunderstorms Tuesday – Thursday and cooler, warming on Friday.
– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 10%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: < 5%
Warm again today with temperatures already above normal (91F in OKC). Expect another warm day on Tuesday with things cooling off for Wednesday and Thursday, should progged thunderstorms occur. After Thursday temperatures should warm back up above normal.
500mb pattern has weakend alot across the region with the best flow to the north and east. 588dm ridge is over the western U.S. and this feature should remain there for a few days. East of us a longwave trof will help a cold front push into the region late Tuesday. Models differ on speed and timing, but think late Tuesday should be good enough. Front will be a slow mover and combine with 70F dewpoints which may allow for locally heavy rainfall. Once the front clears Oklahoma on Thursday we should return to current conditions. There is potential for the front to move slower or stall closer to the state, this would have some impacts on progged warming temperatures for the weekend. For now, easiest to go with warming temperatures and dry conditions after Thursday for Oklahoma. In Texas the chance of rain looks to go all week and may shut off on Sunday if the GFS’s ridge is correct. Not completely sold on the 594dm ridge the GFS has for the weekend, may be kind of tough if lots
of rain occurs.
Given seasonably weak 500mb flow, severe thunderstorms are not expected. Would be nice to get an organized rain event, but it is July after all.
Tropics remain quiet today, nothing note worthy showing up right now. Although we know how fast that can change.
For more information, weather news, weather blog, and chase summaries go to http://www.hook-echo.com.